Monday’s bond market has opened the new year in negative territory despite slightly weaker than expected economic data. The stock markets are the cause of the bond weakness with the Dow up 124 points and the Nasdaq up 46 points. The bond market is currently down 12/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher than Friday’s pricing by approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point.
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The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index was this morning’s only important economic data. It showed a reading of 57.0 that was slightly lower than the 57.3 that was expected. This means that manufacturer sentiment did increase last month, but not quite as much as thought. That basically can be considered goods for the bond market and mortgage rates, but it was the highest reading in 7 months. Therefore, the markets seem to be using the data to drive stock prices higher.
Tomorrow morning the Commerce Department will post November’s Factory Orders data. This data gives us a fairly important measurement of manufacturing sector strength. It is similar to the Durable Goods Orders release that was posted late last week, except this report includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. Durable goods are items that are expected to last three or more years such as electronics and autos. Examples of non-durable goods are food and clothing. Analysts are expecting to see a decline of 0.3% in new orders. This report generally does not have a huge impact on the bond market or mortgage rates, but it can influence bond trading enough to create a minor change in rates. The larger the decline, the better the news for mortgage rates.
Also tomorrow is the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. This will give market participants insight to the Fed’s thinking and concerns regarding the economy, inflation and monetary policy. It is one of those pieces of information that may cause a great deal of volatility in the markets or be a non-factor, depending on what the minutes show. They will be released at 2:00 PM ET, so they shouldn’t affect the markets or mortgage rates until afternoon hours.
Overall, the key data of the week will be Friday’s Employment report, but today’s report is also considered highly important. There is no much to be concerned about Wednesday or Thursday, so we can expect to see the markets prepare and take positions before Friday major news. If the markets think we will get strong numbers Friday, we may see pressure in the bond market and mortgage pricing until the report is released.
This Week’s Mortgage Overview
Monday’s bond market has opened the new year in negative territory despite slightly weaker than expected economic data. The stock markets are the cause of the bond weakness with the Dow up 124 points and the Nasdaq up 46 points. The bond market is currently down 12/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher than Friday’s pricing by approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point.
Advertisement
The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index was this morning’s only important economic data. It showed a reading of 57.0 that was slightly lower than the 57.3 that was expected. This means that manufacturer sentiment did increase last month, but not quite as much as thought. That basically can be considered goods for the bond market and mortgage rates, but it was the highest reading in 7 months. Therefore, the markets seem to be using the data to drive stock prices higher.
Tomorrow morning the Commerce Department will post November’s Factory Orders data. This data gives us a fairly important measurement of manufacturing sector strength. It is similar to the Durable Goods Orders release that was posted late last week, except this report includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. Durable goods are items that are expected to last three or more years such as electronics and autos. Examples of non-durable goods are food and clothing. Analysts are expecting to see a decline of 0.3% in new orders. This report generally does not have a huge impact on the bond market or mortgage rates, but it can influence bond trading enough to create a minor change in rates. The larger the decline, the better the news for mortgage rates.
Also tomorrow is the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. This will give market participants insight to the Fed’s thinking and concerns regarding the economy, inflation and monetary policy. It is one of those pieces of information that may cause a great deal of volatility in the markets or be a non-factor, depending on what the minutes show. They will be released at 2:00 PM ET, so they shouldn’t affect the markets or mortgage rates until afternoon hours.
Overall, the key data of the week will be Friday’s Employment report, but today’s report is also considered highly important. There is no much to be concerned about Wednesday or Thursday, so we can expect to see the markets prepare and take positions before Friday major news. If the markets think we will get strong numbers Friday, we may see pressure in the bond market and mortgage pricing until the report is released.